spell in first week November, near average temperatures
UPDATED 19TH OCTOBER - COVERING THE PERIOD 26TH
OCTOBER - 17TH NOVEMBER.
Mean temperatures will generally be within 0.5C of the 1981-2010
long-term normal, with mild and cold spells tending to
counterbalance each other.
Rainfall totals are forecast to be close to normal in the north
of Scotland and generally a little below normal elsewhere,
mainly due to a settled spell in the first week of November.
Sunshine totals are expected to be above average in most eastern
parts of the UK, but generally a little below normal in most
Week 2: Monday 26th October - Sunday 1st November
This period will have persistent low pressure over and to the
west of Iceland, with a strong Russian anticyclone close to
eastern Scandinavia but not far west enough to become a major
influence on Britain's weather. Thus, this period will be
generally unsettled with westerly and south-westerly winds, and
it will be windy at times especially in the north-west of the
UK. During the mid to latter part of the week the Azores High
will link up with the east Scandinavian/Russian high at times
and ridge into southern Britain, bringing more settled weather
into the south of Britain, but there will still generally be a
west to south-westerly flow.
It will be wet in most parts of the country early in the week,
with rain belts periodically moving in off the North Atlantic
interspersed with brighter showery weather, and temperatures
generally a little below average for the time of year. Later in
the week it will generally turn warmer than average with a
stronger tropical maritime influence, meaning that dull damp
weather will be common over and to the west of high ground, but
the south and east of England and sheltered parts of eastern
Scotland will see some sunshine coming through at times.
Mean temperatures will be very close to the 1981-2010 long-term
normal during this week, but up to a degree above in the
south-east and about 1C below in Northern Ireland.
Rainfall totals will tend to be close to normal in most parts of
the country, with a wet start to the week in most parts, and a
drier second half of the week, although in north-west Scotland
it will be the other way round with below average rainfall early
in the week, and turning wetter mid to late week.
Sunshine totals will tend to be below average in the west and
above average in the east.
Week 3: Monday 2nd November - Sunday 8th November
This period will probably see high pressure building further
north for a time, resulting in a period of relatively settled
weather for most of the country, peaking around midweek.
North-western Britain, particularly north-west Scotland, will be
most prone to a continuation of the unsettled weather of Week 2,
with high pressure tending especially to ridge into the south,
and low pressure systems continuing to track to the north and
north-west of Scotland. There is potential for the weather to
turn more unsettled later in the week with the Madden-Julian
Oscillation possibly heading into phase 7 which promotes more of
a north-westerly type over the British Isles and pressure
falling over Scandinavia.
Mean temperatures during this week will be above normal in the
north, especially in eastern Scotland where positive anomalies
may approach 2C, but may end up close to or just below normal in
the southern half of England and in south Wales, with high
pressure resulting in some cold nights with frost and fog, and
where fog lingers during the daytime, daytime temperatures will
end up below normal. Rainfall totals will generally be below
normal, except in northern Scotland where they may end up close
to normal. Sunshine amounts are more uncertain, but are likely
to be above normal in most parts of England and Wales and in
south-east Scotland, but below normal in Northern Ireland and in
western and northern Scotland.
Rest of month: Monday 9th November - Tuesday 17th November
This period will probably have frequent north-westerly winds and
temperatures fluctuating around the long-term normal but overall
on the cool side, and high pressure periodically ridging into
the west and south. There is a chance of some places, mainly on
high ground and in the north, seeing their first sleet/snow of
the season, but the confidence in this is currently low. The
prevailing air flow may turn more westerly towards mid-November
with the weather turning more unsettled generally. Temperatures
are forecast to be a little below normal overall during this
period, but not unusually so, with negative anomalies of around
1C in most parts of the country. Rainfall totals will probably
be below normal in south-east Scotland and north-east England,
but near normal in most other regions. Sunshine is expected to
be above normal in most parts of the UK, but near to slightly
below in some western coastal areas.
Courtesy of Netweather